Environmental Science and Engineering Seminar

As natural disasters grow in frequency and intensity with climate change, limiting populations and properties in harm's way will be key to adaptation. This study evaluates one approach to discouraging development in risky areas --- eliminating public incentives for development, such as infrastructure investments, disaster assistance, and federal flood insurance. Using novel machine learning and matching techniques, we examine the Coastal Barrier Resources System (CBRS), a set of lands where these federal incentives have been removed. We find that the policy lowers development densities by 85% inside designated areas, increases development in neighboring areas, reduces flood damages, and alters local demographics. Our results suggest that the CBRS generates significant savings for the federal government by reducing flood claims in the National Flood Insurance Program, while its overall impacts on coastal county property tax revenues are minimal.